By the numbers: Faso-Delgado locked in dead heat for 19th Congressional District

Legislative Gazette photo by Dylan Hirsh
Antonio Delgado holds a town hall-style meeting with voters in Catskill, New York. Delgado is tied in a poll with incumbent John Faso for the 19th Congressional District seat in the Hudson Valley, according to a Siena College/Spectrum News poll released October 22, 2018.

Freshman Republican Representative John Faso and his Democratic opponent Antonio Delgado are locked in a dead heat just two weeks before Election Day – separated by a single point.

Forty-four percent of likely voters support Faso, 43 percent support Delgado, six percent are with a third-party candidate, and seven percent are undecided, according to a new Spectrum News/Siena College poll of likely 19th Congressional District voters released Monday.

Faso has a negative 40-to-46 percent favorability rating, compared to a 42-to-41 percent favorability rating for Delgado.

“Barnburner. Nail biter. Photo finish. Pick your phrase and buckle up because this race is going right down to the wire. Faso and Delgado are locked in a battle royale with the electorate about as evenly divided as it can be,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Each has more than 70 percent support from his own party and independents are separated by a point.

“Men side with Faso by 19 points, while women side with Delgado by 17 points. Voters with at least a bachelor’s degree support Delgado by 20 points, while those with less than a bachelor’s degree support Faso by19 points,” Greenberg said. “Voters under 55 are separated by a point, as are voters 55 and older. While the race could not possibly get closer over the final two weeks, it certainly figures to get even rougher and nastier.

“Both candidates have become well known to the voters, with Democrats overwhelmingly viewing Delgado favorably and Faso unfavorably, and Republicans overwhelmingly viewing Faso favorably and Delgado unfavorably. Independents are closely divided but view each candidate slightly unfavorably,” Greenberg said.

“By a narrow three-point margin — 48-to-45 percent — voters would prefer to see the House controlled by Republicans next year. Not surprisingly, more than 80 percent of Democrats and Republicans want their party to control the House, with independents nearly evenly divided,” Greenberg said. “Also by a narrow three-point margin, voters disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. Democrats overwhelmingly disapprove, while Republicans overwhelmingly approve. Independents are virtually evenly divided.

“This race all comes down to turnout. In a district that has virtually the same number of Republicans and Democrats and a race that has voters nearly evenly divided, the key will be which campaign does a better job of getting its voters to the polls,” Greenberg said. “Answer that question and predicting the winner of this race is easy.”

This Spectrum News/Siena College poll was conducted October 12-16, 2018 by telephone calls in English to 500 likely voters in the 19th Congressional District. This poll has a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.