Q Poll: In upcoming primaries, black votes matter for Clinton; Trump sweeps all groups

Photo courtesy of Hillary for Iowa
Photo courtesy of Hillary for Iowa



With a 65-to-28 percent lead among black voters, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tops Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 53-to-40 percent among New York state likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released April 12.

Meanwhile, one week ahead of New York’s primaries, Donald Trump has 55 percent of New York likely Republican primary voters, followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 20 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 19 percent.

These latest results, from a poll conducted April 6 to April 11 among likely voters in each party, show little movement from a March 31 survey showing Clinton over Sanders 54-to-42 percent and Trump with 56 percent, followed by Cruz at 20 percent and Kasich at 19 percent.

“At this sort-of-late stage in the primary marathon, voters’ minds are pretty well made up. Four out of five supporters of each Democrat say they won’t switch,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director, Maurice Carroll.

With just days before the April 19 primaries, 6 percent of Republican likely primary voters are undecided, but 22 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind. Among Democratic likely primary voters, 7 percent are undecided and 18 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

According to results in the Quinnipiac poll, Clinton needs to mobilize the black community to come to the polls on Tuesday if she hopes to defeat a surging Sanders. Sixty-five percent of likely black Democratic voters say they plan to vote for Clinton over Sanders in the New York primary. White voters are divided, with 50 percent for Clinton and 45 percent for Sanders.

“Black voters matter for Secretary Hillary Clinton in the New York Democratic primary,” Carroll said. “She leads Sen. Bernie Sanders in many New York demographic groups except the young folks and very liberal voters, but it’s a huge lead among black voters that gives her a comfortable double-digit margin.”

There are some gaps among New York likely Democratic primary voters, notably between older and younger voters, and between liberal and moderate ideologies. Those 44 years old and younger are backing Sanders over Clinton, 55-to-36 percent, while older voters back Clinton.

Self-described “very liberal” Democrats back Sanders 55-to-41 percent, while Clinton takes “somewhat liberal” and “moderate-to-conservative” Democrats.

She leads 55-to-38 percent among women, while men are divided, with 48 percent for Clinton and 43 percent for Sanders, shrinking the gender gap which shows up in Quinnipiac polls from other states as well. Fifty-five percent of the women who are Democrats and likely to vote say they plan to vote for Clinton on April 19

“Gender counts,” Carroll said. “New York women like the idea of nominating the first woman president.

Geography also plays a role in candidate preference. Clinton leads 53-to-37 percent in New York City and 55-to-40 percent in the suburbs. Upstate Democrats are divided with 50 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Sanders.

Among likely Republican primary voters, Trump leads among every group, from Tea Party members to moderate to liberal Republicans, among men and women and voters of every age group and in every region of the state.

“Remember, there’s a Republican primary, too, and Donald Trump is big in his home state,” Carroll said.

White born-again Evangelical Christians are more closely divided, with 41 percent for Trump, 37 percent for Cruz and 16 percent for Kasich.

Quinnipiac University surveyed 550 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points for their responses, and 860 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points for their responses. Live interviewers called both land lines and cell phones.